If you are watching national news, you are hearing about a "broad housing comeback" and "stabilizing rates." But if you are looking to buy or sell in Southeastern North Carolina, those national headlines are practically useless.

As we enter the first quarter of 2026, the market in New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Brunswick counties isn't following a single trajectory—it has split into two distinct speeds. While some neighborhoods in Wilmington have returned to a balanced, pre-pandemic rhythm, pockets of Brunswick County remain in a state of hyper-demand.

Here is the "insider" reality of what is actually happening on the ground this quarter, beyond the generic Zillow estimates.

1. The Inventory Split: Balanced vs. Battleground

The most critical trend for Q1 2026 is the divergence between counties.

New Hanover & Onslow (The Balanced Zone): For the first time in years, we are seeing true equilibrium. In Wilmington and Jacksonville, inventory levels have crept up to a healthy 4–5 months of supply. This means buyers finally have the leverage to negotiate repairs and closing costs. The "waive inspections or lose the house" era is officially over here.

Brunswick County (The Battleground): Conversely, the data for Leland, Southport, and Ocean Isle Beach tells a different story. Inbound migration from the Northeast hasn't slowed. Inventory in amenity-rich communities like St. James remains tight, and bidding wars are still common for turnkey homes under $600k.

2. The Pender County "New Math"

For buyers and sellers in Hampstead, Rocky Point, and Surf City, Q1 represents a major financial shift. January 1, 2026, marked the effective date for Pender County’s tax revaluation.

For Sellers: You can no longer rely on the old tax value to justify your list price, nor should you fear the new one. The new assessed values have largely caught up to the market reality.

For Buyers: Do not calculate your monthly payment based on the 2025 tax bill the seller shows you. You must run your numbers based on the 2026 revaluation to avoid a nasty surprise at the closing table.

3. The Insurance "Double Tap"

We often tell clients, "Date the rate, marry the insurance." In 2026, that marriage is getting more expensive. While rates have stabilized, homeowners insurance is set for another hike. Following the pattern from 2025, we are bracing for another roughly 7.5% statewide increase effective June 1, 2026.

Strategic Advice: Smart buyers in Q1 are aggressively targeting homes with hip roofs (which slope down on all sides) and newer construction (post-2020). These properties secure wind mitigation credits that can virtually neutralize the upcoming premium hikes.

4. The Vacation Rental Reality Check

For investors eyeing Oak Island or Topsail Island, Q1 is the critical "booking window" for summer revenue. However, the market has shifted.

Oak Island: We are seeing signs of saturation in the standard 3-bedroom segment. To win here in 2026, you need a differentiator—a pool, an elevator, or an EV charger.

Topsail: Revenue growth remains strong, but the barrier to entry (purchase price) is higher.

Your Next Step

The "wait and see" strategy of 2024 and 2025 is no longer viable. With insurance rates climbing and specific micro-markets heating up, you need a strategy based on today's data, not last year's headlines.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we don't just track sold prices; we track the "invisible" metrics like insurance filings, tax revaluations, and zoning shifts. We are experts in listening and communicating people's wants into homes that work for them. Let’s sit down and review the specific numbers for your target neighborhood to ensure you are on the right side of the 2026 market split.