In the high-stakes environment of Southeastern North Carolina real estate, many buyers and sellers make the mistake of treating the "List Price" as a definitive value. However, in towns like Wilmington, Hampstead, and Oak Island, the list price is often merely a starting point, a marketing signal rather than a mathematical certainty.

To truly understand what a home is worth in 2026, you must look at the List-to-Sale Price Ratio. This metric reveals the percentage of the asking price that sellers are actually receiving at the closing table. Whether you are navigating the luxury markets of Wrightsville Beach or seeking an investment property in Onslow County, historical ratio data is the most reliable tool for calibrating an offer that is competitive without overpaying.

Understanding the Ratio: The Math Behind the Offer

The List-to-Sale ratio is calculated by dividing the final sale price by the last listing price.

• A ratio of 100% means the home sold exactly for what it was listed.
• A ratio above 100% indicates a "Seller’s Market" scenario, likely involving multiple offers or bidding wars.
• A ratio below 100% suggests a "Buyer’s Market" or a property that was initially overpriced for its condition.

Across New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Brunswick counties, these ratios are not uniform. They fluctuate based on neighborhood demand, seasonal school-year cycles, and even the specific "coastal readiness" of a property. In 2026, we are seeing a significant divergence in ratios as the market stabilizes from the volatility of previous years.

Regional Variations: What the Data Says About Your County

The "average" ratio for North Carolina means very little when you are trying to secure a home in a specific coastal micro-market. Here is how the ratios are trending across our region in early 2026:

New Hanover County: The Precision Market

In Wilmington, particularly in established areas like Pine Valley or Landfall, the List-to-Sale ratio has hovered around 97% to 99%. This indicates a balanced market where sellers are pricing realistically, but buyers still have a small window to negotiate for repairs, often related to the high coastal humidity or aging roof systems common in the salt air.

Brunswick County: The Growth Premium

Conversely, parts of Brunswick County, specifically Leland and Southport, continue to see ratios at or slightly above 100%. The influx of retirees and remote workers has kept demand high. If you are making an offer on a home in St. James or Ocean Isle, a "lowball" offer below 95% of the list price is often ignored by sellers who know another buyer is right behind you.

Pender and Onslow Counties: The "Days on Market" Variable

In Hampstead and Sneads Ferry, the ratio is often tied directly to how long a home has been listed. For homes that sell within the first 10 days, the ratio often exceeds 100%. However, for properties that sit longer than 45 days, perhaps due to CAMA permit complexities or flood zone concerns, the ratio frequently drops to 94% or 95%.

How to Use Ratio Data to Guide Your Offer Price

If you are a buyer, you should never pull an offer number out of thin air. Instead, use historical data to build a strategic case.

Step 1: Analyze the Last 6 Months. Look at the comparable sales (comps) in the specific neighborhood. If the average ratio in Surf City is 98%, and a home is listed at $600,000, a "fair" starting point is likely $588,000, provided the home's condition matches the comps.

Step 2: Factor in Coastal Maintenance. In our region, a home with a brand-new HVAC system (essential for humidity control) and impact-rated windows will command a higher ratio than one that hasn't been updated. Use the ratio data to justify a lower offer on properties that require immediate "coastal hardening".

Step 3: Check the "Original" vs. "Last" List Price. Some properties have had price cuts. The List-to-Sale ratio is usually calculated from the last list price. A home that has already dropped its price twice may have a ratio of 99%, but it has actually sold for significantly less than its original market entry point.

Strategic Takeaways for Sellers: Avoiding the "Ratio Trap"

For sellers in Southeastern NC, the goal is to keep your List-to-Sale ratio as high as possible. A low ratio often signals to the market that there is something "wrong" with the property, even if it was simply a matter of aggressive initial pricing.

County	2026 Market Pulse	Target List-to-Sale Ratio	Strategy for Success
New Hanover	Balanced	98%	Price at market value; expect 2% in negotiation for repairs.
Brunswick	Seller's Tilt	100%+	Price slightly below market to trigger a bidding war and drive the ratio up.
Pender	Rapid Growth	99%	Highlight school district proximity to maintain leverage.
Onslow	Military/Stable	97.5%	Be prepared for VA loan-related repair requests that may impact net proceeds.

The Risk of Overpricing: If you list your home in Wilmington for $50,000 more than the data supports, your ratio will eventually plummet as the home becomes "stale." In the coastal market, "stale" homes are often viewed with suspicion regarding mold, moisture, or structural integrity, leading to even deeper price cuts.

The Role of Local Nuance: Beyond the Numbers

While the math of List-to-Sale ratios is essential, it doesn't account for the "intangibles" of the North Carolina coast. This is where local authority becomes your greatest asset.

A high List-to-Sale ratio in Wrightsville Beach might be driven by a rare deep-water dock permit that doesn't show up in a standard spreadsheet. Similarly, a low ratio in Topsail Island might be the result of an unfavorable flood insurance quote that scared off traditional buyers.

When reviewing historical data, you must ask:

• Was the sale influenced by CAMA restrictions?
• Did the property have a transferable flood insurance policy?
• Was the sale price affected by seller-paid closing costs or rate buy-downs? (Note: High seller concessions can "artificially" inflate the sale price, making the ratio look better than the actual net profit).

Partnering with a Strategic Guide

Navigating the nuances of Southeastern North Carolina real estate requires more than just access to the MLS; it requires a deep understanding of the people and stories behind the data. The numbers tell you what is happening, but experience tells you why.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we specialize in this level of strategic analysis. We aren't just here to facilitate a transaction; we are experts in listening to your specific goals and communicating those wants into a home or a sale that works for your life. We look at the List-to-Sale ratios of New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Brunswick counties every day, not just to track prices, but to ensure our clients have the upper hand at every stage of the negotiation.

Summary of List-to-Sale Insights

The List-to-Sale ratio is the most accurate barometer for market leverage in 2026. While Brunswick County remains a stronghold for sellers with ratios frequently hitting the 100% mark, markets like New Hanover and Onslow offer more room for buyer negotiation, typically settling between 97% and 99%. By analyzing historical ratios alongside coastal-specific variables, such as flood zones and maintenance history, you can move beyond guesswork and make offers with total confidence.

Whether you are looking for a strategic investment or a forever home by the water, Aspyre Realty Group is your partner and guide. We excel at translating complex market data into clear, actionable steps that put you in the best possible position to succeed on the coast.