As we turn the calendar to 2026, the national headlines are buzzing with one word: Comeback.

After a sluggish couple of years defined by the "lock-in effect," national economists from NAR to Fannie Mae are predicting a "turning of the corner" for the housing market. The consensus? A 14% jump in sales activity nationally and a stabilization of interest rates near 6%.

But if you live in New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, or Brunswick counties, you know that national averages often stop at the county line. Our coastal market dances to a different rhythm, driven by retirees, military movements, and vacation rentals.

Here is what the data says about Q1 2026 for Southeastern North Carolina—and where we diverge from the national pack.

1. The "Price Growth" Split: Where We Beat the Average

Nationally, home prices are expected to rise modestly by about 3–4% in 2026. However, our region is telling a tale of two markets.

Brunswick County is the Outlier: While the nation sees "modest" growth, Brunswick County continues to outperform. Closing out 2025 with a near 10% jump in sales volume, this area remains a hotbed for inbound migration. In Q1, expect competition to remain fierce in amenity-rich communities like Brunswick Forest and St. James, where demand still outpaces supply.

New Hanover & Onslow Stability: Wilmington and Jacksonville are tracking closer to that national 3–4% baseline. We are seeing a return to a "balanced market"—meaning buyers finally have room to breathe, negotiate repairs, and avoid the frantic bidding wars of yesteryear.

2. Pender County: The "Jan 1" Revaluation Reality

For Pender County residents and investors, Q1 2026 brings a specific local headline: Tax Revaluation.

New property values became effective January 1, 2026. While this doesn't change your mortgage payment overnight, it does signal a shift in assessed value that will impact tax bills later in the year.

For Sellers: Be prepared to explain the new tax value vs. market value to potential buyers.

For Buyers: Don't just look at the previous tax bill; ensure you are calculating your monthly payment based on the new 2026 valuation to avoid budget surprises.

3. The Investor Update: Topsail & Oak Island

If you are eyeing a short-term rental, the numbers for early 2026 are compelling. Despite national whispers of an "Airbnb bust," our local coast is resilient.

Revenue Growth: Recent data shows Topsail Island and Oak Island properties seeing double-digit year-over-year revenue growth (approx. 17–26%).

The Q1 Opportunity: While peak revenue is in July, the "booking window" for those prime summer weeks happens now—in Q1. Buying a vacation rental in January or February allows you to capture the full summer income. Wait until April, and you’ve likely missed the booking surge.

4. Interest Rates: The "New Normal"

The "Marry the house, date the rate" slogan is retiring. The forecast for Q1 2026 puts rates settling in the high 5s to low 6s.

The Reality Check: We likely won't see 3% rates again. The good news? This stability is bringing sellers off the sidelines. More inventory is hitting the market in Q1 as homeowners realize waiting for a rate plummet isn't a strategy. This means more choices for you.

Summary: What This Means for You

Buyers: Q1 is your "Goldilocks" window. Inventory is rising (thanks to sellers accepting the new rate reality), but the spring buyer rush hasn't fully hit yet.

Sellers: If you are in Brunswick, you are still in the driver's seat. In New Hanover or Onslow, pricing correctly right out of the gate is critical to standing out in a stabilizing market.

Interpreting the Data for Your Move

National averages are interesting cocktail party conversation, but they don't tell you what your specific home in Porters Neck or your lot in Sneads Ferry is worth.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we don't just read the forecasts; we track the street-level shifts that algorithms miss. We translate these macro-economic trends into a micro-strategy that works for your wallet and your wishlist. Let’s sit down and look at the Q1 numbers for your neighborhood.