For the last three years, the real estate conversation in Southeastern North Carolina has revolved around one frustrating word: Scarcity. Buyers have battled over the same three listings in Hampstead. Investors have watched waiting lists grow in Brunswick County. But as we head into 2026, the data is signaling a shift. The "lock-in effect" that kept homeowners frozen in their 3% mortgages is beginning to thaw, and builders are ramping up production in key corridors.

The short answer to "Will we see more supply?" is Yes. But the type of supply—and where it is landing—varies wildly by county. Here is your expert inventory forecast for the year ahead.

1. Pender County: The "New Construction" Wave

If you are looking for a brand-new home, Pender County is your inventory hero for 2026. The data shows a massive surge in active listings (up nearly 44% year-over-year in some reports), largely driven by developers opening new phases.

Where to Look: Keep your eyes on Rocky Point and the western side of Hampstead. We are seeing new plats approved and dirt moving for future phases in major master-planned communities like Blake Farm and Wyndwater.

The Price Impact: Interestingly, while inventory is up, median prices in the county have dipped slightly (~2%). Don't mistake this for a crash; it's a "mix shift." We are seeing more affordable, mid-tier inventory ($400k-$500k) hitting the market compared to the ultra-luxury waterfront heavy hitters, bringing the median down and giving first-time buyers a real shot.

2. Brunswick County: Still Playing Catch-Up

In contrast to Pender, Brunswick County is still fighting to keep up with demand. While inventory has risen (up ~23%), pending sales have jumped even higher (~30%).

The Dynamic: Every time a new street opens in Brunswick Forest or St. James, the homes are absorbed almost instantly by retirees relocating from the Northeast.

The 2026 Outlook: Expect "resale" inventory to remain tight. Your best bet here is still new construction, but you need to be on the "VIP Interest Lists" early. If you wait until the model home is open, the prime lots are often already gone.

3. New Hanover County: The "Move-Up" Market Returns

In Wilmington, the "lock-in effect" is finally breaking. As families grow and life changes happen, homeowners who have been sitting on low rates since 2021 are finally deciding to list.

The "Balanced" Vibe: We are approaching a 4-5 month supply of homes, which is the technical definition of a "Balanced Market."

What this means for you: You likely won't see a flood of cheap foreclosures. Instead, you will see more choice in the $500k-$800k range. You might actually have the luxury of sleeping on a decision overnight—something that was impossible in 2024.

4. Surf City & Topsail: The "Profit Taking" Surge

The island markets are seeing a specific type of inventory spike: Investors cashing out. With insurance premiums rising and property values in Surf City up significantly (some data shows median prices up over 12%), many long-time owners are deciding that 2026 is the perfect time to sell and take their equity off the table.

Opportunity: This brings more "second row" and "sound-side" inventory to the market than we’ve seen in years. If you’ve been waiting for a beach house, your selection is about to get better.

The Strategy for 2026

More inventory means more leverage. In 2025, you had to waive inspections to get a house. In 2026, you can ask for repairs, closing costs, and maybe even a rate buydown.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we track the "Coming Soon" pipeline before it hits Zillow. We know which builders in Rocky Point are about to release lots and which sellers in Porters Neck are prepping for a January listing. If you want first access to the new supply, let’s start the conversation now.