For the last two years, the math was murky. With interest rates spiking and home prices holding firm, many potential buyers in Southeastern North Carolina decided to "wait it out" in a rental.

But as we settle into 2026, the equation has changed.

With interest rates stabilizing in the low-6% range and rents facing new upward pressure from insurance hikes, the "wait and see" strategy is losing its financial edge. If you are currently renting in Wilmington, Leland, or Jacksonville, it is time to re-run the numbers.

Here is a realistic look at the Rent vs. Buy math for our region in 2026.

The New Variable: The "Pass-Through" Rent Hike

Before we look at mortgage payments, we have to talk about rent. While rental rates have softened slightly in some national markets, our coastal region is facing a unique challenge: Landlord Insurance Costs.

In late 2025, insurance companies requested a massive rate increase for dwelling policies. While the final approved rate will be lower, the reality is clear: the cost of owning a rental property is skyrocketing. Landlords will not absorb this cost; they will pass it on to tenants. Expect renewal notices in 2026 to come with sticker shock.

Scenario A: The "Move-Up" Buyer (Leland / Wilmington)

The Rental Reality:
Average Rent for a 3-Bedroom Home: $2,100–$2,300/month
Trend: Rents will continue rising as landlords cover new taxes and insurance.

The Purchase Reality:
Home Price: $400,000
Down Payment: 5% ($20,000)
Interest Rate: 6.2%
Estimated Mortgage Payment: ~$2,850 (including taxes, insurance, and PMI)

The Verdict: Buying costs roughly $600 more per month at first. But with 3% appreciation, that homeowner gains $12,000 in equity in Year 1—effectively erasing the perceived “monthly loss.”

Scenario B: The Military Buyer (Jacksonville / Onslow)

For military families using the VA Loan benefit, the math shifts even more favorably.

The Rental Reality:
Average Rent for a 3-Bedroom Home: $1,600–$1,750/month

The Purchase Reality:
Home Price: $310,000
Down Payment: $0 (VA Loan)
Interest Rate: 6.2%
Estimated Mortgage Payment: ~$2,300

The Verdict: The gap is ~$550/month. But principal paydown + appreciation + VA loan advantages mean owners keep the upside instead of handing it to a landlord. Over a typical 3-year station, the wealth difference is substantial.

The "Cost of Waiting" Calculation

The biggest risk in 2026 isn’t interest rates—it’s home prices. Most forecasts predict 2–4% appreciation this year.

If you wait to buy the $400,000 home, it may cost $416,000 next year. That raises your down payment requirement and loan amount, likely cancelling out any benefit from a mildly lower rate.

Your Personal "Break-Even" Point

General numbers help, but your decision should be based on how long you plan to stay. If you’re here 12 months? Renting is logical. If you’re here 3+ years? Buying nearly always wins.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we use detailed Rent vs. Buy calculators that factor in appreciation, tax brackets, down payment options, and monthly carrying costs. We can pinpoint your personal break-even date with precision. Stop guessing and start building wealth. Let’s run your numbers today.