For most of 2024 and 2025, the real estate market felt like it was holding its breath. Between the "lock-in" effect of interest rates and the relentless noise of the campaign trail, many buyers and sellers simply hit the pause button.

Now, as we settle into the reality of 2026, that breath has finally been released.

Regardless of your political leanings, the conclusion of the election cycle has brought one undeniable benefit to the housing market: Certainty. In New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Brunswick counties, we are seeing the "Election Effect" fade, replaced by a return to economic fundamentals.

Here is how the new political and economic landscape is shaping buyer sentiment and property values in our region for the year ahead.

1. The "Uncertainty" Tax is Gone

Historically, transaction volume drops in the months leading up to a presidential election and rebounds immediately after. 2026 is following this script perfectly.

The Shift: Buyers who were "waiting to see what happens" are now back in the game. They know who is in the White House, they know the tax code isn't changing overnight, and they are tired of putting their lives on hold.

Local Impact: This rebound is most visible in the second-home markets of Topsail and Oak Island. Discretionary purchases that stalled in late 2025 due to “economic anxiety” are moving again as confidence stabilizes.

2. Policy vs. Pricing: The New Construction Reality

One of the biggest talking points of the new political landscape is trade policy and tariffs. For our region—which relies heavily on new construction to meet inventory demand—this is a critical watchlist item.

The Risk: New tariffs on imported lumber, steel, or appliances could raise the cost of building homes in Hampstead or Leland.

The 2026 Reality: Smart buyers are locking in new construction contracts now, before potential material cost increases make their way into consumer pricing. A spec home in Pender County may be the most affordable it will be all year.

3. Interest Rates: Campaign Promises Meet Economic Gravity

During the campaign, everyone promised to "fix" inflation and lower rates. Now, with the dust settled, the market has accepted the New Normal.

The Stabilization: The Fed signals a steady path forward, and mortgage rates have settled into the low-to-mid 6% range. The fantasy of 3% is gone, but so is the fear of 8%.

The Result: This stability benefits the market. Sellers are listing again because they can accurately predict their next move, improving inventory flow in neighborhoods like Northchase and Ogden.

4. The Military Stabilizer

While national debates continue, Onslow County (Jacksonville) remains one of the most insulated markets in the country.

Defense Spending: With the new administration prioritizing defense budgets, stability at Camp Lejeune and New River is all but guaranteed. This secures demand in both the rental and starter-home markets, regardless of national fluctuations.

5. The "Local" Politics Matter More

While Washington grabs headlines, the policies shaping your 2026 property value are happening in Burgaw, Bolivia, and Wilmington.

Tax Revaluations: Pender County’s new tax values reflect local growth, not federal policy.

Insurance Rates: Coastal insurance increases stem from state rate bureaus and global reinsurance—completely independent of national politics.

Navigating the New Landscape

The election is over. The market is moving. The question is no longer "Who will win?" but "Where should I buy?"

At Aspyre Realty Group, we focus on the policy that impacts your bottom line. Whether it’s understanding new loan limits, anticipating construction cost shifts, or finding local pockets of value that national trends overlook, we are your bipartisan partner in achieving a successful closing. Let’s leave the politics to the pundits and find your next home.