If the last few years were defined by volatility, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of clarity.

While national headlines are buzzing about a "housing comeback" and stabilizing interest rates, the real estate landscape in Southeastern North Carolina is moving to its own rhythm. From Pender County tax bills to Oak Island rental trends, the forces shaping our market this year are distinctly local.

Here is our expert forecast for New Hanover, Pender, Onslow, and Brunswick counties in 2026.

1. Pender County: The "Revaluation" Reality

For residents and investors in Pender County, the biggest story of 2026 started on January 1st. That was the effective date for the county’s tax revaluation.

The Impact: While tax rates won't be finalized until mid-year, assessed values have caught up to the skyrocketing market prices of the last four years.

For Sellers: Be prepared to discuss this "new math" with buyers. A higher tax value validates your asking price, but it also changes the monthly payment equation for your buyer.

For Buyers: Do not rely on the 2025 tax bill when calculating your budget. Ensure your lender is estimating payments based on the new 2026 valuation to avoid closing-table surprises.

2. The Insurance "Double Tap"

We often tell clients, "Date the rate, marry the insurance." This year, that marriage gets a little more expensive.

The Certainty: As part of a settlement with the NC Rate Bureau, homeowner insurance rates are set to rise by another 7.5% on June 1, 2026.

The Watchlist: While this increase is capped, new filings are already in motion for future hikes. Smart buyers in 2026 are prioritizing homes with newer roofs (post-2020) and hip roof designs, which garner the best insurance credits to offset these rising premiums.

3. The Investor Split: Oak Island vs. Topsail

The short-term rental market is not crashing, but it is crowding. 2026 will be the year of "saturation" in some pockets and "opportunity" in others.

Oak Island: We are seeing a massive surge in new short-term rental listings (some data suggests over 200% growth in active listings year-over-year). For investors, this means competition is fierce. To win in 2026, your property needs standout amenities—think heated pools and designer interiors—rather than just "good bones."

Topsail Island: Revenue growth here remains strong, with year-over-year gains outpacing many other coastal towns. The barrier to entry is higher, but the rental yields are holding steady for those who buy strategically.

4. The Bridge: A Year of Planning, Not Pain

The Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement is the elephant in the room for commuters. The good news for 2026? No orange cones yet.

With design and construction not slated to begin until fiscal year 2028, 2026 will be a year of debate over tolls and funding, not traffic jams. Property values in Leland and Brunswick County will remain insulated from construction headaches for another year, keeping demand high.

5. The "Balanced" Buyer

In New Hanover and Onslow counties, we are officially in a "Balanced Market." Inventory has stabilized, meaning buyers finally have the leverage to ask for repairs and closing costs again. The days of "waiving inspections" are largely behind us.

Navigating the New Normal

2026 isn't about waiting for the "perfect" market; it's about understanding the current one.

At Aspyre Realty Group, we don't just read the national headlines; we track the local tax assessments, insurance filings, and rental data that actually impact your wallet. Whether you are navigating the new Pender tax values or looking for the hidden investment gems in Brunswick County, we have the data to guide your next move. Let’s sit down and build your 2026 strategy.